Climate Fact Of The Day – Study: The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a signi?cant temperature decrease in cycle 24

The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a signi?cant temperature decrease in cycle 24

Authors:
Jan-Erik Solheim – Department of Physics and Technology, University of Tromsø, N-9037, Tromsø, Norway
Kjell Stordahl – Telenor Norway, Fornebu, Norway
Ole Humlum – Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway

Abstract
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No signi?cant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a signi?cant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0? C from solar cycle 23 to 24
for the stations and areas analyzed. We ?nd for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal. READ PAPER